Dan Bin's latest speech: Don't miss out on a great era

Author: Dan Bin

On June 29, Dan Bin, Chairman of Dongfang Harbor, delivered a keynote speech titled "Don't Miss a Great Era" at the Gelonghui "2026--All in Silicon-Based New Era" Mid-Term Strategy Summit.

Regarding the market's concerns about the AI bubble, Dan Bin pointed out from the perspective of industrial cycles: "The risk of missing an era may be greater than the concern about short-term bubbles."

In his view, humanity is standing at the starting point of the artificial intelligence era—this era may be even more disruptive than the electronic era, the internet era, or the mobile internet era.

He predicts that the AI wave is unlikely to end in three to four years, and the industrial level may refer to the ten-year rhythm of the internet era, with the release of ChatGPT at the end of 2022 as the starting point. The real risk reference point is around 2033.

He emphasized that the "main reason" driving long-term growth in the capital market is technological progress, while trade wars, interest rate hikes, wars, and other factors are merely secondary. He also discussed the long-term logic of silicon-based life replacing carbon-based life from the perspective of human civilization, stressing that investments should focus on the main reasons and respect corporate innovation and market common sense.

Finally, he emphasized that we must not waste this great era.

"The tide never turns back; the giant wheel of the era is silently rolling forward. To be born in this time is already a great fortune; do not let hesitation trap your steps, do not let shortsightedness waste the years—do not miss this magnificent great era that belongs to us."

The following are the highlights of Dan Bin's speech compiled by Gelonghui, shared with everyone.

01 From the Perspective of Industrial Cycles, the Risk of Missing the AI Era is Greater than Worrying About Short-Term Bubbles

Recently, many people have been asking: Is there a bubble in AI? How do we view the short term?

Dan Bin's answer is: From the perspective of long-term industrial development, for market participants, the risk of missing an era may be greater than your concern about short-term bubbles. Of course, in the face of short-term fluctuations and uncertainties, investors also need to independently judge based on their own investment cycles and risk tolerance.

Looking back at the 55-year history of Nasdaq since its establishment in 1971, the core driving force for long-term growth in the capital market is technological progress, not short-term factors like interest rates and macro policies.

Some are worried that a high-interest-rate environment will lead to a market collapse.

Let’s look at history: In the 1970s, the U.S. benchmark interest rate reached as high as 22%, but the electronic hardware era saw a 6.5-fold increase over 16 years; the internet era experienced a complete cycle of interest rate cuts and hikes, rising for a full 10 years; the mobile internet era was similar. Interest rates have never been the main cause; technological progress is the main cause.

02 The AI Era is More Disruptive than the Previous Three Eras; The Industrial Level May Refer to the Ten-Year Rhythm of the Internet Era

He further pointed out that during last year's annual meeting, he predicted that 2026 might be similar to 1994—after a cross star, a significant rise would follow. Years 23, 24, and 25 have already seen a significant rise for three years, and this year still shows strong industrial driving force.

"Why? Because the AI era is more disruptive than the previous three eras—the electronic era, the internet era, and the mobile internet era."

Dan Bin's basic judgment is that the artificial intelligence era will have a long industrial cycle like the internet era—ChatGPT was announced at the end of 2022, and if we refer to the internet's "ten-year" historical rhythm, that point (around 2033) is likely the reference window for examining risks. Before that, the industrial development of AI is unlikely to end in three to four years. However, short-term market fluctuations and local bubbles do objectively exist, and investors still need to rationally assess based on their own situations.

03 The Long-Term Vision of Silicon-Based Life: A Thought Experiment from a Civilizational Perspective

Dan Bin presented two videos, elevating the perspective from the capital market to the dimension of human civilization.

His viewpoint is highly imaginative: silicon-based life replacing carbon-based life is a highly probable direction. If Earth's civilization is to continue, silicon-based life is likely to replace carbon-based life or become the dominant productive force.

He provided a set of extremely broad time coordinates:

In 4.1 billion years, the sun may expand into a red giant and engulf the Earth, or it may collapse into a white dwarf.

Voyager has been flying for 77 years and is still about 70,000 light-years away from exiting the solar system.

In 10 billion years, the Andromeda galaxy may collide with the Milky Way—by then, humanity must fly out of the Milky Way.

"Carbon-based life cannot fly out of the Milky Way. But silicon-based life—it is a million times smarter than us, thinking and working continuously 24 hours a day. The revolutionary changes it produces may take civilization further in ways beyond our comprehension."

Dan Bin stated that this is not a short-term investment judgment but rather provides a framework for thinking: the economic growth paradigm brought by silicon-based intelligence may have infinite possibilities and a longer industrial chain. Understanding this helps to step out of immediate distractions and examine long-term trends.

04 Technology Rewrites the Rules of War; Neither China nor the U.S. Can Afford to Lose the AI Competition

Dan Bin showcased a recent case from the Russia-Ukraine battlefield: a Russian soldier was captured by Ukrainian drones and robots.

"The weaponization of AI is an exponential change; this is an inevitable process."

He believes that neither China nor the U.S. can afford to lose this AI competition. The U.S. has a head start in underlying technologies and top talent, while China has formed differentiated competitive advantages in application scenarios, data scale, and the completeness of the industrial chain. Both sides continue to increase their long-term investments in AI.

05 Buffett's "Regret" and Dongfang Harbor's Cognitive Iteration

Dan Bin compared the changes in holdings of the "old legends" in China and the U.S.

Buffett bought Google in the third quarter of last year and continued to increase his holdings this year; Google has entered Berkshire's top five holdings.

"Before Munger passed away, he said in an interview that his era should earn $100 billion or even $1 trillion. He had such a good relationship with Bill Gates but only symbolically bought 100 shares of Microsoft. Microsoft has risen 7,000 times."

"If he had taken $100 million from Coca-Cola to buy Microsoft, that would be $700 billion, more than all the money he has made."

Dan Bin admitted that these historical fragments cannot predict the future but remind us that investment needs to continuously break cognitive boundaries. Dongfang Harbor is also iterating and evolving: our company's research team continues to conduct in-depth tracking in areas such as AI basic computing power and storage.

06 Calmly Maintain the Overall Situation, Rationally Hold the Chips Given by the Era

Dan Bin concluded with a poem he wrote:

"The tide never turns back; the giant wheel of the era is silently rolling forward.

Some are trapped in the fragmented noise before them, while others stand above the cycle gazing at the starry river.

There is no need to be entangled in the rise and fall of the moment, nor to blindly follow the heat of the moment.

Mountains and rivers are reborn in change; opportunities blossom in long-term perseverance.

To be born in this time is already a great fortune; do not let hesitation trap your steps, do not let shortsightedness waste the years.

Live well, move forward earnestly, and do not miss this magnificent great era that belongs to us."